The standout fixture this weekend sees Manchester City take on a Higuaín-rejuvenated Chelsea. The Model makes Man City massive favourites at home, with a 59% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%).
Spurs are still in the title hunt for sure, but to stay in it they have to put teams like Leicester away. The Model says they probably will, with a 63% chance of beating the Foxes and a forecast scoreline of 2-0 (10%).
Can Liverpool still win the title? This seems like a strange question to ask of a team who are level on equal points at the top of the table with a game in hand. But they are giving away ground on their rivals now, and momentum on the run-in is everything. The Model however makes them heavy favourites to get back to winning ways this weekend, with a 68% chance of beating Bournemouth at Anfield. The most likely outcome in this fixture is 3-0 (13%).
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brighton Burnley 1-0 15 48 26
Crystal Palace West Ham 1-0 11 48 26
Fulham Manchester Utd 1-2 10 21 55
Huddersfield Arsenal 0-1 15 20 56
Liverpool Bournemouth 3-0 13 68 13
Southampton Cardiff 1-0 14 57 20
Watford Everton 1-0 10 49 25
Manchester City Chelsea 2-0 11 59 18
Spurs Leicester 2-0 10 63 16
Wolves Newcastle 1-0 17 54 22