The Champions League returns to dominate midweek evenings for the next few weeks. A rejuvenated Manchester United face a less than bouyant PSG this evening, a match-up that looked very tricky for United when it was drawn out of the hat. As it is, now The Model expects a 2-1 Man United win (9%), and there’s a 53% chance they win. The away goal will irritate United, but The Model reckons there’s an 18% chance they’ll win without conceding any away goals. Tottenham will also win 2-1 (7%), and The Model thinks there’s a 13% chance they’ll win without conceding an away goal.
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
| Man Utd | Paris St-G. | 2-1 | 9% | 53% | 22% |
| Roma | Porto | 2-1 | 7% | 39% | 34% |
| Ajax | Real Madrid | 1-2 | 8% | 34% | 38% |
| Tottenham | B Dortmund | 2-1 | 7% | 57% | 20% |
As with our forecasts at the culmination of the Group Stage, we are going head to head with Jean-Louis Foulley, of the Université de Montpellier. We didn’t do so well last time round, so we’re hoping to do better this week. Here are his forecasts:
| Win % | |||||
| Foulley forecasts | Score | P(R) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Roma | Porto | 1-1 | 12% | 44% | 30% |
| Man Utd | PSG | 1-0 | 11% | 45% | 30% |
| Tottenham | Dortmund | 1-0 | 11% | 55% | 22% |
| Ajax | Real Madrid | 0-1 | 11% | 24% | 52% |