The Champions League returns to dominate midweek evenings for the next few weeks. A rejuvenated Manchester United face a less than bouyant PSG this evening, a match-up that looked very tricky for United when it was drawn out of the hat. As it is, now The Model expects a 2-1 Man United win (9%), and there’s a 53% chance they win. The away goal will irritate United, but The Model reckons there’s an 18% chance they’ll win without conceding any away goals. Tottenham will also win 2-1 (7%), and The Model thinks there’s a 13% chance they’ll win without conceding an away goal.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Man Utd Paris St-G. 2-1 9% 53% 22%
Roma Porto 2-1 7% 39% 34%
Ajax Real Madrid 1-2 8% 34% 38%
Tottenham B Dortmund 2-1 7% 57% 20%

As with our forecasts at the culmination of the Group Stage, we are going head to head with Jean-Louis Foulley, of the Université de Montpellier. We didn’t do so well last time round, so we’re hoping to do better this week. Here are his forecasts:

  Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Roma Porto 1-1 12% 44% 30%
Man Utd PSG 1-0 11% 45% 30%
Tottenham Dortmund 1-0 11% 55% 22%
Ajax Real Madrid 0-1 11% 24% 52%