Unusually, there are two Premier League fixtures on a Friday evening.
Cardiff welcome Watford in one of these games. Both teams are on good form, having won their last two each in all competitions. The Model gives the away side the edge, with a 43% chance of a Watford victory and the most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%).
The other fixture this evening is an all-London derby: East-side meets West-side. West Ham are unsurprisingly favourites to beat Fulham at their bargain-basement home in Stratford, with a 56% chance of a win, and the most likely outcome being 1-0 (10%).
With Man City in Carabao Cup Final action, Liverpool have the chance to pile on some pressure. But to do so they must overcome Ole’s Utd at Old Trafford. The Model says this might be too difficult a task, and gives Man Utd the edge, with a 39% chance of winning. The most likely outcome is 1-0 (8%).
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 27 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Southampton 2-0 10 60 17
Bournemouth Wolves 0-1 8 34 39
Burnley Spurs 1-2 10 25 49
Cardiff Watford 0-1 14 30 43
Leicester Crystal Palace 1-0 13 40 33
Manchester Utd Liverpool 1-0 8 39 33
Newcastle Huddersfield 1-0 23 63 16
West Ham Fulham 1-0 10 56 20