Championship, R34 (23-25 Feb, 2019)

The East Midlands rivalry between Derby County and Nottingham Forest is fierce. Both sides have football history and success which belies there current situation. Most teams currently in the Premier League, and their fans, would love to have the storied pasts of these two East Midlands clubs. As it is, they face each other on Monday night in the second tier of English football. Their previous meeting before Christmas was a drab 0-0, and there were 22 players on the pitch at the end. Their meeting before that also ended 0-0. This time the Model gives Forest the edge [hmm…], with a win likelihood of 42%. The most likely outcome of the game is 1-0 (14%).
Elsewhere in the Championship this weekend, Reading welcome Rotherham to the Madejski. This is a classic relegation 6-pointer, with both sides on 29 points and just either side of the drop zone. The Model gives Reading favourite status, with a 48% chance of winning. The most likely outcome in this one is also 1-0 (16%).
Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

• The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
• The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw