Tonight Leeds take on West Brom at Elland Road. Both sides lost their last match in the league, and both sit just outside the automatic promotion places, in third and fourth. You would expect the Model to find it hard to pick a winner, and indeed that is the case. Leeds have a forecast 38% chance of victory, and West Brom 35%. The most likely scoreline outcome consistent with a Leeds win is 2-1, though with a just a probability overall of 6%. The most likely outcome of the match is surely a 1-1 draw.
On Monday night, in the other standout fixture of the round, the two Sheffield clubs face off at Hillsborough. As has been the case generally in more recent history, Utd have looked the stronger team this season and are sitting pretty in 2nd place in the league. Wednesday are in mid-table, and there are probably too many teams between them and the playoffs to have any realistic hopes remaining of promotion this season. The Model marginally favours Utd to win this one, 37% compared with 35% for Wednesday. The Model forecasts a scoreline outcome of 0-1 (11%).
The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Derby 1-0 13 42 31
Brentford QPR 1-0 14 54 21
Hull Birmingham 2-1 8 41 32
Ipswich Reading 0-0 18 36 37
Leeds West Brom 2-1 6 38 35
Millwall Norwich 0-1 9 31 42
Preston Bristol City 1-0 13 46 28
Rotherham Blackburn 1-0 13 38 34
Sheffield Wed Sheff Utd 0-1 11 35 37
Stoke Notts Forest 0-1 14 35 38
Swansea Bolton 1-0 20 63 16
Wigan Middlesbrough 0-1 20 29 43