Tonight Norwich face Swansea. The Canaries are top of the table, whereas Swansea have had a season to forget and are now probably looking forward to the summer to put some of that parachute money to good work. The Model makes Norwich strong favourites, with a forecast 56% win likelihood. The most likely scoreline outcome is 2-1 (10%).
Rotherham may be in the relegation zone, but they are also unbeaten in 6 in the league. They travel to rivals Sheffield Utd this weekend. The Model suggests that there is a 65% chance that unbeaten run will end there, and the forecast scoreline is 1-0 (18%).
Derby earned an important win in midweek, to put them just outside the playoffs on goal difference. Derby haven’t lost to the Owls at home in their last 10 meetings, since 2006. I am not sure the Model really takes that sort of bilateral history into account though, and it gives Sheffield Wednesday a decent 28% chance of a win this weekend. That said, the most likely outcome is still a home win, 1-0 (11%).
The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Norwich Swansea 2-1 10 56 20
Blackburn Preston 0-1 9 34 38
Bolton Millwall 0-1 18 30 43
Bristol City Leeds 1-0 11 45 28
Derby Sheffield Wed 1-0 11 45 28
Middlesbrough Brentford 1-0 16 47 26
Notts Forest Hull 1-0 12 48 26
QPR Stoke 1-0 11 45 28
Reading Wigan 1-0 14 47 27
Sheff Utd Rotherham 1-0 18 65 15
West Brom Ipswich 2-0 14 69 12
Birmingham Aston Villa 1-0 10 50 25