Can Wolves do it? The Model says no. Can Swansea? The Model says no. Millwall? No.
But the Model only shows us who are the favourites in Cup matches. Upsets are upsets precisely because they go against what is expected – that the favourites win.
We Scorecasting Economists delight in being wrong – particularly when it involves Man United losing…

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Sat Swansea Man City 1-3 8% 12% 70%
Sat Watford C Palace 1-0 18% 47% 26%
Sat Wolves Man Utd 0-1 23% 30% 43%
Sun Millwall Brighton 0-1 11% 29% 45%