The first international break of 2019 sees the European Championship Qualifiers begin in earnest. Or begin in embarrassment, if you’re Scottish.
We didn’t quite get our forecasts out in time for Scotland’s opening game on Thursday night, but the Model was expecting the Scots to beat Kazakstan. Things didn’t go to plan. We post our “backcasts” below, although we point out that the forecasts were made in advance of the games, just not posted online (yeah, right…).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Backcasts | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Germany | Serbia | 2-0 | 13% | 63% | 15% |
| Wales | Trinidad | 2-0 | 15% | 75% | 9% |
| Austria | Poland | 1-0 | 8% | 55% | 19% |
| Belgium | Russia | 2-1 | 10% | 75% | 9% |
| Croatia | Azerbaijan | 2-0 | 18% | 85% | 5% |
| Cyprus | San Marino | 3-0 | 20% | 86% | 5% |
| Holland | Belarus | 1-0 | 16% | 83% | 6% |
| Israel | Slovenia | 1-0 | 15% | 41% | 29% |
| Kazakhstan | Scotland | 0-1 | 13% | 19% | 56% |
| Kosovo | Denmark | 0-1 | 15% | 18% | 57% |
| Macedonia | Latvia | 1-0 | 17% | 76% | 8% |
| N Ireland | Estonia | 1-0 | 24% | 55% | 19% |
| Slovakia | Hungary | 1-0 | 12% | 65% | 14% |
On to tonight’s games. Can England get off to a winning start against the Czech Republic? The Model thinks so, 1-0 (18%), and indeed the Model doesn’t seem to think it’ll be much of a close encounter, with England at 76% to win. But then, Scotland were 56% to win…
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Friday | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Albania | Turkey | 0-1 | 16% | 24% | 48% |
| Andorra | Iceland | 0-2 | 18% | 11% | 71% |
| Bulgaria | Montenegro | 1-0 | 10% | 58% | 17% |
| England | Czech Rep | 1-0 | 18% | 76% | 8% |
| Japan | Colombia | 1-2 | 9% | 30% | 41% |
| Lux’bourg | Lithuania | 1-0 | 17% | 61% | 16% |
| Moldova | France | 0-2 | 20% | 8% | 76% |
| Portugal | Ukraine | 1-0 | 20% | 63% | 15% |
| South Korea | Bolivia | 1-0 | 12% | 65% | 13% |
| USA | Ecuador | 1-0 | 10% | 53% | 20% |
On Saturday and Sunday (next two tables), Ireland and Scotland face “easy” games, Ireland playing Gibraltar (3-0, 16%), Scotland playing San Marino (5-0, 16%). Surely Scotland can’t slip up again?
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Saturday | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Argentina | Venezuela | 2-0 | 14% | 75% | 9% |
| Bosnia-Hz. | Armenia | 2-0 | 14% | 79% | 7% |
| Brazil | Panama | 2-0 | 22% | 88% | 4% |
| Georgia | Switzerland | 0-1 | 15% | 16% | 61% |
| Gibraltar | Ireland | 0-3 | 16% | 12% | 68% |
| Guatemala | Costa Rica | 0-2 | 13% | 25% | 46% |
| Italy | Finland | 1-0 | 23% | 75% | 9% |
| Liecht’stein | Greece | 0-1 | 22% | 11% | 71% |
| Malta | Faroe I | 0-0 | 19% | 38% | 32% |
| Mexico | Chile | 1-0 | 12% | 47% | 25% |
| Peru | Paraguay | 1-0 | 16% | 68% | 12% |
| Spain | Norway | 3-0 | 15% | 80% | 7% |
| Sweden | Romania | 1-0 | 20% | 48% | 24% |
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Sunday | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Cyprus | Belgium | 0-2 | 12% | 9% | 74% |
| Holland | Germany | 1-0 | 9% | 51% | 22% |
| Hungary | Croatia | 0-1 | 13% | 14% | 64% |
| Israel | Austria | 0-1 | 11% | 16% | 60% |
| Kazakhstan | Russia | 0-1 | 11% | 14% | 64% |
| N Ireland | Belarus | 1-0 | 22% | 51% | 22% |
| Poland | Latvia | 3-0 | 14% | 85% | 5% |
| San Marino | Scotland | 0-5 | 16% | 8% | 76% |
| Slovenia | Macedonia | 1-0 | 20% | 46% | 26% |
| Wales | Slovakia | 1-0 | 15% | 47% | 25% |
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday see the remaining matches of the break being played.
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Monday | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Andorra | Albania | 0-1 | 25% | 14% | 65% |
| Azerbaijan | Lithuania | 1-0 | 20% | 61% | 16% |
| France | Iceland | 2-0 | 12% | 83% | 5% |
| Kosovo | Bulgaria | 1-1 | 12% | 38% | 32% |
| Lux’bourg | Ukraine | 0-2 | 18% | 14% | 64% |
| Montenegro | England | 0-1 | 15% | 12% | 69% |
| Myanmar | Indonesia | 0-0 | 14% | 39% | 31% |
| Portugal | Serbia | 1-0 | 15% | 65% | 13% |
| Turkey | Moldova | 2-0 | 22% | 83% | 6% |
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Tuesday/Wednesday | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Algeria | Tunisia | 1-2 | 7% | 30% | 40% |
| Armenia | Finland | 0-1 | 13% | 26% | 45% |
| Bosnia-Hz. | Greece | 1-0 | 22% | 63% | 15% |
| Czech Rep | Brazil | 0-1 | 21% | 13% | 67% |
| Gibraltar | Estonia | 0-1 | 17% | 18% | 56% |
| Ireland | Georgia | 1-0 | 18% | 63% | 15% |
| Italy | Liecht’stein | 3-0 | 17% | 88% | 4% |
| Japan | Bolivia | 2-0 | 9% | 68% | 12% |
| Malta | Spain | 0-4 | 15% | 8% | 76% |
| Morocco | Argentina | 0-0 | 16% | 31% | 39% |
| Nigeria | Egypt | 1-0 | 20% | 57% | 18% |
| Norway | Sweden | 0-1 | 18% | 30% | 40% |
| Paraguay | Mexico | 0-1 | 15% | 23% | 50% |
| Romania | Faroe I | 2-0 | 20% | 86% | 5% |
| Senegal | Mali | 1-0 | 20% | 74% | 9% |
| South Korea | Colombia | 0-1 | 14% | 27% | 44% |
| Switzerland | Denmark | 1-0 | 17% | 51% | 22% |
| Costa Rica | Jamaica | 2-0 | 13% | 69% | 12% |
| Honduras | Ecuador | 0-1 | 15% | 31% | 40% |
| Peru | El Salvador | 3-0 | 15% | 75% | 9% |
| USA | Chile | 1-0 | 8% | 46% | 25% |