Continuing our lower league end-of-season projections, here we present League Two. Lincoln are nailed on for promotion (99%) and probably the title (92%). Tranmere’s storming run of form puts them in serious play-off contention, but they are in the mix with a lot of teams, so are only at 57% to make the end-of-season lottery.
At the bottom, Sol Campbell’s Macclesfield have a 84% chance of being relegated, and Football League founder members Notts County have an 83% chance of that continuous 131-year spell of league membership being broken.
| Probability (%) | ||||||
| Team | Most Likely | Position | Title | Promotion | Playoffs | Relegation |
| Lincoln | 1 | 92% | 92% | 99% | 100% | 0% |
| Bury | 2 | 33% | 3% | 60% | 96% | 0% |
| Mansfield | 2 | 21% | 2% | 42% | 91% | 0% |
| MK Dons | 3 | 17% | 1% | 32% | 87% | 0% |
| Forest Green | 5 | 15% | 1% | 22% | 78% | 0% |
| Carlisle | 6 | 16% | 1% | 15% | 71% | 0% |
| Exeter | 7 | 16% | 0% | 17% | 74% | 0% |
| Tranmere | 8 | 19% | 0% | 9% | 57% | 0% |
| Colchester | 9 | 22% | 0% | 3% | 36% | 0% |
| Northampton | 10 | 19% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Crewe | 11 | 20% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Stevenage | 12 | 19% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| Oldham | 13 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cheltenham | 14 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Swindon | 15 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Grimsby | 15 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| M’cambe | 17 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Newport | 18 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Crawley | 19 | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Cambridge | 21 | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| Port Vale | 21 | 24% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| Yeovil | 22 | 32% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Macc T | 24 | 48% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 84% |
| Notts Co | 24 | 45% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 83% |