There is plenty of interest both at the top and bottom of the league in tonight’s and tomorrow’s fixtures. These are “games-in-hand” for some teams. Man City have the opportunity to cash in and move ahead of Liverpool (permanently?) by hosting Cardiff, who pushed Chelsea hard at the weekend. City away however are a very different proposition for the Bluebirds. The Model thinks Cardiff will get hammered, and the most likely outcome is 4-0 (13%).
Fulham will be relegated if they lose tonight, and effectively relegated if they don’t win, proving that, despite strong correlation, money isn’t all that is needed to build a successful Premier League squad. The Model thinks this is highly likely to happen (cue footage of fans crying, who must have been in chronic denial of what was inevitable for months), with Fulham only given a 14% chance of a win away at Watford. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%)
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s midweek forecasts for the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Watford Fulham 1-0 14 66 14
Wolves Manchester Utd 0-1 15 30 42
Chelsea Brighton 1-0 15 62 17
Manchester City Cardiff 4-0 13 81 7
Spurs Crystal Palace 1-0 12 56 20