We have run the simulations and updated our probabilistic forecasts of the final Premier League and Championship tables in 2019 (below — also see here for comparison with previous end of season forecasts).
Man City are now clear title favourites, 79% to Liverpools 21%.
Man Utd have a forecast 32% likelihood of making the top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League (that way). Chelsea (44%), Arsenal (42%) and Spurs (82%) are all ahead in the competition for a top 4 spot.
Fulham and Huddersfield are already relegated. Cardiff are now most likely to join them in the Championship next season at 63%. Burnley however ares till in significant danger, with a 22% chance of going down.
These forecasts incorporate all information from all matches up to 4th April.
Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.
|Most likely position||Likelihood of… (%)|