We have run the simulations and updated our probabilistic forecasts of the final Premier League and Championship tables in 2019 (below — also see here for comparison with previous end of season forecasts).
Man City are now clear title favourites, 79% to Liverpools 21%.
Man Utd have a forecast 32% likelihood of making the top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League (that way). Chelsea (44%), Arsenal (42%) and Spurs (82%) are all ahead in the competition for a top 4 spot.
Fulham and Huddersfield are already relegated. Cardiff are now most likely to join them in the Championship next season at 63%. Burnley however ares till in significant danger, with a 22% chance of going down.
These forecasts incorporate all information from all matches up to 4th April.
Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.
Most likely position | Likelihood of… (%) | ||||
Aug | April | Title | CL | Rel | |
1 | 1 | Man City | 79.2 | 100 | 0 |
2 | 2 | Liverpool | 20.8 | 100 | 0 |
3 | 3 | Tottenham | 0 | 81.8 | 0 |
6 | 5 | Chelsea | 0 | 44.3 | 0 |
2 | 6 | Man Utd | 0 | 31.7 | 0 |
6 | 6 | Arsenal | 0 | 42.2 | 0 |
10 | 7 | Wolves | 0 | 0 | 0 |
17 | 8 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 |
12 | 9 | Everton | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7 | 10 | Leicester | 0 | 0 | 0 |
16 | 11 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15 | 12 | B’mouth | 0 | 0 | 0.4 |
14 | 13 | C Palace | 0 | 0 | 0.1 |
14 | 13 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 1.1 |
18 | 15 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 4.9 |
16 | 16 | S’ton | 0 | 0 | 8.9 |
11 | 17 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 21.9 |
7 | 18 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 62.7 |
9 | 19 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 100 |
20 | 20 | Hudd | 0 | 0 | 100 |
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