We have run the simulations and updated our probabilistic forecasts of the final Premier League and Championship tables in 2019 (below — also see here for comparison with previous end of season forecasts).
Man City are now clear title favourites, 79% to Liverpools 21%.
Man Utd have a forecast 32% likelihood of making the top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League (that way). Chelsea (44%), Arsenal (42%) and Spurs (82%) are all ahead in the competition for a top 4 spot.
Fulham and Huddersfield are already relegated. Cardiff are now most likely to join them in the Championship next season at 63%. Burnley however ares till in significant danger, with a 22% chance of going down.


These forecasts incorporate all information from all matches up to 4th April.
Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.


 

Most likely position Likelihood of… (%)
Aug April Title CL Rel
1 1 Man City 79.2 100 0
2 2 Liverpool 20.8 100 0
3 3 Tottenham 0 81.8 0
6 5 Chelsea 0 44.3 0
2 6 Man Utd 0 31.7 0
6 6 Arsenal 0 42.2 0
10 7 Wolves 0 0 0
17 8 Watford 0 0 0
12 9 Everton 0 0 0
7 10 Leicester 0 0 0
16 11 West Ham 0 0 0
15 12 B’mouth 0 0 0.4
14 13 C Palace 0 0 0.1
14 13 Newcastle 0 0 1.1
18 15 Brighton 0 0 4.9
16 16 S’ton 0 0 8.9
11 17 Burnley 0 0 21.9
7 18 Cardiff 0 0 62.7
9 19 Fulham 0 0 100
20 20 Hudd 0 0 100