Lincoln may be as good as promoted already, but they still have the small matter of six remaining games, the first of which is as tough as they come for runaway leaders – a trip to second placed MK Dons. The Model thinks a 1-1 draw is most likely (12%).
The Model thinks stuttering Bury can put an end to an utterly abject week when they visit Carlisle, themselves without a win in four. But did the Model see just how bad Bury were in the week?
It’s a three way battle, essentially, for the drop out of the Football League. Improving Notts County (84%) though look set to lose further ground with a 1-0 home reverse to Northampton (9%). Yeovil (50%) are sinking fast, and look set to record a sixth straight defeat at West Country rivals Swindon tomorrow (1-0, 15%). The Model expects Macclesfield to take a huge step to safety with a 1-0 win over Morecambe (10%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
| CAR | BUR | 1-2 | 8% | 31% | 41% |
| CHE | EXE | 1-0 | 6% | 41% | 31% |
| COL | OLD | 1-0 | 12% | 38% | 34% |
| CRA | FGR | 0-1 | 13% | 30% | 43% |
| GRI | STE | 1-0 | 14% | 45% | 28% |
| MAC | MOR | 1-0 | 10% | 45% | 28% |
| MAN | CAM | 1-0 | 18% | 61% | 17% |
| MKD | LIN | 1-1 | 12% | 36% | 37% |
| NEW | TRA | 1-1 | 12% | 35% | 37% |
| NOT | NOR | 0-1 | 9% | 33% | 39% |
| PVA | CRE | 1-0 | 16% | 40% | 33% |
| SWI | YEO | 1-0 | 15% | 62% | 17% |