Lower league football fans are eternal optimists. They have to be, after all, to keep persisting with their team, who almost always disappoint. Because it’s just that one time that they don’t, that everything goes right, that keeps them going. A lousy run of form has put paid to the play-off hopes of Coventry and Blackpool, but Peterborough? Five points off the pace with a game in hand? Oh, the hope. Unfortunately, the Model thinks they’ll have a mountain to climb come 5pm Saturday, after they lose 1-0 at Blackpool (11%), while Doncaster will beat Plymouth 2-1 (10%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League One | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Accrington | Walsall | 1-0 | 11% | 47% | 27% |
| Barnsley | Fleetwood | 1-0 | 18% | 57% | 19% |
| Blackpool | Peterborough | 1-0 | 11% | 46% | 27% |
| Bristol R | Bradford | 1-0 | 16% | 59% | 18% |
| Charlton | Luton | 0-1 | 17% | 33% | 39% |
| Doncaster | Plymouth | 2-1 | 10% | 57% | 19% |
| Gillingham | Shrewsbury | 1-0 | 10% | 41% | 31% |
| Oxford | AFC Wim | 1-0 | 18% | 51% | 24% |
| Portsmouth | Rochdale | 2-0 | 11% | 69% | 13% |
| Scunthorpe | Burton | 0-1 | 8% | 28% | 46% |
| Southend | Wycombe | 2-1 | 9% | 44% | 29% |
| Sunderland | Coventry | 1-0 | 20% | 62% | 17% |
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League Two | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Bury | Colchester | 2-1 | 10% | 55% | 21% |
| Cambridge | Newport | 1-1 | 12% | 35% | 37% |
| Crewe | Notts Co | 2-1 | 10% | 52% | 23% |
| Exeter | Port Vale | 1-0 | 15% | 49% | 25% |
| F Green | Macc T | 2-1 | 10% | 54% | 22% |
| Lincoln | Cheltenham | 2-0 | 10% | 59% | 18% |
| Morecambe | Grimsby | 1-0 | 11% | 43% | 30% |
| Northampton | Mansfield | 0-1 | 11% | 32% | 40% |
| Oldham | Swindon | 1-0 | 10% | 47% | 26% |
| Stevenage | Carlisle | 1-0 | 9% | 37% | 35% |
| Tranmere | MK Dons | 1-0 | 8% | 44% | 29% |
| Yeovil | Crawley | 1-0 | 12% | 42% | 31% |