For the final stages of the season, we consider each lower league division separately. This allows a bit more focus on what’s left at stake in each division – which is more in League One than might have been anticipated before Tuesday’s matches, when Doncaster were beaten at home by Accrington.

Here are our latest end-of-season probabilities for League One:

Position Probability (%)
Most Likely Pr (%) Title Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Luton 1 84% 84% 97% 100% 0%
Barnsley 2 61% 9% 70% 100% 0%
Portsmouth 3 46% 7% 29% 100% 0%
Sunderland 4 54% 0% 4% 100% 0%
Charlton 5 77% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Doncaster 6 81% 0% 0% 81% 0%
Peterboro 7 75% 0% 0% 18% 0%
Coventry 8 71% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Blackpool 9 35% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Burton 10 36% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fleetwood 11 39% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Oxford 12 57% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Accrington 13 27% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gillingham 13 37% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bristol R 15 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Shrewsbury 15 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rochdale 17 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wycombe 18 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Southend 19 26% 0% 0% 0% 25%
Plymouth 20 26% 0% 0% 0% 42%
Scunthorpe 21 25% 0% 0% 0% 57%
Wimbledon 22 34% 0% 0% 0% 79%
Walsall 23 70% 0% 0% 0% 97%
Bradford 24 98% 0% 0% 0% 100%

At the top, Luton are 84% to clinch the title, and despite Portsmouth and Sunderland having games in hand, they are 97% likely to be promoted. Sunderland entertain Portsmouth in the game of the day in League One. RED thinks Sunderland will prevail 2-1 (9%), and that Sunderland have a 43% chance of ending Portsmouth’s run of seven straight wins.

Peterborough’s faint hopes of making the playoffs remain faint, at 18%. That said, they have a relatively straightforward tie at almost relegated Walsall (97% chance of relegation), where RED expects them to win 2-1 (9%). Doncaster, on the other hand, have a tricky visit to resurgent Oxford, where RED expects them to lose 2-1 (7%), despite the U’s having nothing to play for.

Having been wide open for quite some time, the League One relegation battle is almost over. It’s Bradford, Walsall, Wimbledon (79%) and one of Scunthorpe (57%), Plymouth (42%) or Southend (25%). Plymouth have a tricky trip to Accrington and RED thinks they’ll lose 2-1 (9%), while Wimbledon are expected to edge safe Wycombe 1-0 at home (9%), and Scunthorpe will beat relegated Bradford 2-1 (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Sat Accrington Plymouth 2-1 9% 43% 30%
Sat Wimbledon Wycombe 1-0 9% 50% 24%
Sat Barnsley Blackpool 1-0 17% 61% 17%
Sat Burton Luton 0-1 10% 28% 45%
Sat Fleetwood Bristol R 1-0 15% 43% 30%
Sat Gillingham Charlton 0-1 11% 26% 47%
Sat Oxford Doncaster 2-1 7% 43% 30%
Sat Rochdale Southend 2-1 7% 44% 29%
Sat Scunthorpe Bradford 2-1 9% 46% 27%
Sat Sunderland Portsmouth 2-1 9% 43% 30%
Sat Walsall Peterboro 1-2 9% 27% 46%
Sun Coventry Shrewsbury 1-0 16% 46% 27%