For the final stages of the season, we consider each lower league division separately. This allows a bit more focus on what’s left at stake in each division – which is more in League One than might have been anticipated before Tuesday’s matches, when Doncaster were beaten at home by Accrington.
Here are our latest end-of-season probabilities for League One:
Position | Probability (%) | |||||
Most Likely | Pr (%) | Title | Promotion | Playoffs | Relegation | |
Luton | 1 | 84% | 84% | 97% | 100% | 0% |
Barnsley | 2 | 61% | 9% | 70% | 100% | 0% |
Portsmouth | 3 | 46% | 7% | 29% | 100% | 0% |
Sunderland | 4 | 54% | 0% | 4% | 100% | 0% |
Charlton | 5 | 77% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
Doncaster | 6 | 81% | 0% | 0% | 81% | 0% |
Peterboro | 7 | 75% | 0% | 0% | 18% | 0% |
Coventry | 8 | 71% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
Blackpool | 9 | 35% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Burton | 10 | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Fleetwood | 11 | 39% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Oxford | 12 | 57% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Accrington | 13 | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Gillingham | 13 | 37% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Bristol R | 15 | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Shrewsbury | 15 | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Rochdale | 17 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Wycombe | 18 | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Southend | 19 | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
Plymouth | 20 | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 42% |
Scunthorpe | 21 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 57% |
Wimbledon | 22 | 34% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 79% |
Walsall | 23 | 70% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 97% |
Bradford | 24 | 98% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
At the top, Luton are 84% to clinch the title, and despite Portsmouth and Sunderland having games in hand, they are 97% likely to be promoted. Sunderland entertain Portsmouth in the game of the day in League One. RED thinks Sunderland will prevail 2-1 (9%), and that Sunderland have a 43% chance of ending Portsmouth’s run of seven straight wins.
Peterborough’s faint hopes of making the playoffs remain faint, at 18%. That said, they have a relatively straightforward tie at almost relegated Walsall (97% chance of relegation), where RED expects them to win 2-1 (9%). Doncaster, on the other hand, have a tricky visit to resurgent Oxford, where RED expects them to lose 2-1 (7%), despite the U’s having nothing to play for.
Having been wide open for quite some time, the League One relegation battle is almost over. It’s Bradford, Walsall, Wimbledon (79%) and one of Scunthorpe (57%), Plymouth (42%) or Southend (25%). Plymouth have a tricky trip to Accrington and RED thinks they’ll lose 2-1 (9%), while Wimbledon are expected to edge safe Wycombe 1-0 at home (9%), and Scunthorpe will beat relegated Bradford 2-1 (9%).
Forecast | Win (%) | |||||
Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |||
Sat | Accrington | Plymouth | 2-1 | 9% | 43% | 30% |
Sat | Wimbledon | Wycombe | 1-0 | 9% | 50% | 24% |
Sat | Barnsley | Blackpool | 1-0 | 17% | 61% | 17% |
Sat | Burton | Luton | 0-1 | 10% | 28% | 45% |
Sat | Fleetwood | Bristol R | 1-0 | 15% | 43% | 30% |
Sat | Gillingham | Charlton | 0-1 | 11% | 26% | 47% |
Sat | Oxford | Doncaster | 2-1 | 7% | 43% | 30% |
Sat | Rochdale | Southend | 2-1 | 7% | 44% | 29% |
Sat | Scunthorpe | Bradford | 2-1 | 9% | 46% | 27% |
Sat | Sunderland | Portsmouth | 2-1 | 9% | 43% | 30% |
Sat | Walsall | Peterboro | 1-2 | 9% | 27% | 46% |
Sun | Coventry | Shrewsbury | 1-0 | 16% | 46% | 27% |