Although the illustrious title of “English 2nd Tier Champion” is yet to be formally decided, the games which matter in the final round of the English Championship concern who finishes in 6th place, the final qualification position for the playoffs, and a chance to reach the promised land.
Derby County had the possibility midweek to effectively seal their playoff place, but only took a point away from Swansea. Their fate is still in their hands, and a win at home to West Brom on Sunday will guarantee they finish 6th. RED gives just a 38% probability that they will get this win, and the forecast scoreline is 2-1 (8%).
Middlesbrough and Bristol City both have a chance of finishing 6th, but other results must go their way. Both also are playing away from home. Bristol have a 32% probability of a win, whereas Middlesbrough have a 43% probability of a win against already relegated Rotherham.
The rest of the Model’s forecasts for R45 (5 May) of the English Championship are in the table below:
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
| Aston Villa | Norwich | 2-1 | 8 | 42 | 31 |
| Blackburn | Swansea | 2-1 | 9 | 40 | 33 |
| Brentford | Preston | 2-1 | 9 | 48 | 26 |
| Derby | West Brom | 2-1 | 8 | 38 | 34 |
| Hull | Bristol City | 2-1 | 9 | 40 | 32 |
| Ipswich | Leeds | 0-1 | 13 | 20 | 56 |
| Notts Forest | Bolton | 1-0 | 13 | 67 | 13 |
| Reading | Birmingham | 2-1 | 7 | 39 | 33 |
| Rotherham | Middlesbro | 0-1 | 12 | 30 | 43 |
| Sheff Wed | QPR | 2-1 | 9 | 61 | 17 |
| Stoke | Sheff Utd | 0-1 | 11 | 25 | 50 |
| Wigan | Millwall | 0-1 | 10 | 44 | 29 |
- The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
- The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw