The penultimate round of Premier League fixtures begin tonight (Friday 3 May). But the decisive games begin tomorrow.

In the title race, Liverpool go across country to Newcastle. This could be a tricky one, especially after the humbling experience of midweek for Liverpool in Barcelona. Even taking this into account, RED still gives Liverpool a 63% chance of victory, and the most likely outcome is 0-1 (22%). Manchester City play the day after, potentially with the chance to win the title before the final weekend. They host Leicester, and RED gives them a 75% chance of a win. The forecast scoreline is 2-0 (14%).

At the bottom, Cardiff are clinging on to Premier League status. They MUST get a result this weekend, and truly need a win. Crystal Palace are the Welsh side’s visitors, and RED only gives Cardiff 26% chance of a win. The forecast scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Brighton travel to Arsenal, who have 64% chance of a win, and the forecast scoreline is 2-0 (12%). The balance of probability, unsurprisingly, is that Cardiff will be relegated this weekend, but much stranger things have happened in football.

Nobody seems to want Champions League football. In recent weeks, Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester Utd have made a mockery of our forecasts. RED is very grumpy with them. All four sides are favourites for a win this weekend too, which probably means they will all lose… but such is the fickle nature of football forecasting.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 37 of the Premier League.

Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Everton Burnley 1-0 14 54 22
Bournemouth Spurs 1-2 9 26 47
Cardiff Crystal Palace 0-1 14 26 48
Newcastle Liverpool 0-1 22 16 63
West Ham Southampton 1-0 13 44 29
Wolves Fulham 1-0 16 67 14
Arsenal Brighton 2-0 12 64 16
Chelsea Watford 1-0 12 55 21
Huddersfield Manchester Utd 0-1 18 15 65
Manchester City Leicester 2-0 14 75 10
  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw