Well, it’s not looking good for England’s last two representatives in Europe. Liverpool suffered a 3-0 reverse in the first leg at Barcelona, and Tottenham fell to a 1-0 home defeat. Can they overturn these results?

RED thinks they can’t. Liverpool are likely to gain a consolation win (2-1, 9%), but Tottenham won’t even manage that, as RED thinks they’ll fall to another 1-0 defeat (12%).

Forecast Win (%)
      Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tue Liverpool Barcelona 2-1 0.09061717 0.53681709 0.21763295
Wed Ajax Tottenham 1-0 0.12050226 0.51535243 0.23265002

We also provide Jean-Louis Foulley’s forecasts:




Foulley   Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Liverpool Barcelona 1-1 11% 33% 38%
Ajax Tottenham 1-0 10% 43% 32%

Since RED calculates a probability for each scoreline, we can look at the chance that Liverpool have of overturning their 3-0 deficit. RED gives them a 3.6% chance of forcing extra time with a 3-0 win, and a 3% chance of winning outright (4-0, 5-0, 5-1, 6-0,…). For Tottenham, things aren’t quite as bleak. There’s a 7.2% chance they will force extra time with a 1-0 win, and a 15.5% chance they can win outright tomorrow night.