RED is safely back in the UK – navigating back from Baku via glorious Kiev, the scene of recent Champions League Final disappointment for Liverpool. Will it be the same tomorrow night? Will it be closer than the Europa League Final ended up being?

RED thinks so. Liverpool are favourites, without a doubt. Liverpool are 61% likely to win, Tottenham a mere 17%.

Despite this, RED thinks it will be tight – not unlike the Premier League meetings between these two clubs. But as Liverpool prevailed 2-1 in both league matches, so RED thinks a one-goal margin will suffice tomorrow night – 1-0, with probability 14%. It’s 7% likely there’ll be a repeat of the league scorelines again (2-1 Liverpool), while Tottenham are at 8% to win 1-0.

Jean-Louis Foulley agrees with RED that the reds will win 1-0 (13%), in regular time, and gives Liverpool a 64% chance of winning the Champions League overall, including extra time and penalty outcomes. There’s a 25% chance that the game will go to extra time, and a 4% chance that it’ll go all the way to penalties.