Following on from RED’s League One forecasts, for League Two we are also experimenting with presenting more information.
RED uses a Poisson regression model to generate expected goals for each team in each match. It is to be emphasised that this is a forecast, rather than the expected goals reported after matches on, for example, Match of the Day. That is based on what happened during the match, and hence is a reflection on events that have already taken place.
We can see from the table below that in every match bar one, the home team is expected to score more goals than the away team. This is then reflected in the outcome probabilities – the probability RED gives each team of winning. Only Swindon at Scunthorpe are more likely to win than their hosts.
While home teams are favourites almost across the board, the variation in expected goals yields different probabilities for the nine different scorelines listed on the right of the table. Hence Morecambe 1-0 Grimsby is at 10.4%, whereas Colchester 1-0 Port Vale is at 12.5%, reflecting that the latter may well be a lower scoring match.
