RED has reflected on the first round of the English Football League, updated its parameters, and spat out a set of outcome predictions for the second round of fixtures.
The computer’s local team, Reading FC, had a tough start to the season at home last weekend, losing 1-3 despite their opponents being down to ten men by the end. Unsurprisingly then the Model suggests they could struggle again this weekend on their travels to Hull, with just a 27% chance of a win. Hull are expected to score 1.5 goals to Reading’s 1.0. However, the most likely unconditional scoreline outcome is 1-1 (12.5%).
Derby County got off to the perfect start under the new leadership of Phillip Cocu, winning away against Huddersfield. They also now have the maverick coaching and playing skills of a certain Wayne Rooney to look forward to from January. On Saturday they welcome Swansea City to Pride Park Stadium. Derby are favourites, with 46% chance of a win, though the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12.5%). Derby fans can expect 1.4 goals from their team, but that they will concede 1.1.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 2 of the English Championship.
The Model’s forecasts for R2 (10 Aug) of the English Championship are in the table below:
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.