RED has produced its predictions for R3 of the Championship. The unconditional most likely scoreline prediction in every match this round is 1-1, reflecting the general competitive balance in the division, and the uncertainty about each team’s current relative strengths, .

RED has also been scouring the web looking for other sources of predictions. One such source is bookmakers. In a fit of insecurity, the computer has decided that each week it will sense check its forecasts, by comparing the predicted probabilities of result outcomes with what it can estimate and infer about bookmaker predictions from the average of their current online odds.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 3 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Championship R3 probability forecasts, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.