League One reaches gameweek 3, except if you’re Bury, who have had yet another match postponed.
Sunderland face another blockbuster tie against another ex-Premier League team as they host 2008 FA Cup winners Portsmouth in an early kick-off. It promises to be a tight match, though with the Rokerites having the edge. RED gives Sunderland a 42.2% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 31.6% chance. A 1-0 home win comes in at a 10.5% chance, but a 1-1 draw is most likely.
This week, RED reports average bookmaker odds, as presented on Oddsportal.com and corrected for the overround. These are presented in the final two columns of the table. Recent research we’ve done suggests that RED can fare reasonably well against bookmakers. One thing to bear in mind about these comparisons is that they are what we loosely interpret as probabilities. They don’t correspond to any particular bookmaker, and as such are not recommendations for any kind of betting strategy. We provide them as it is interesting to compare RED’s forecasts with those of the bookmakers.
There are some substantial differences between RED and the bookmakers; RED much more strongly favours Wimbledon against Southend, whereas the bookmakers like the look of Blackpool against Oxford than does RED. RED and the bookies are agreed that promoted Lincoln will defeat already-struggling Southend, and fancy Bolton even less (10%) than RED (23%) at Tranmere.
