RED with its Bi-P-VAR-X model returns for R2 of the Premier League.
Looking at the results of last weekend’s matches, one notable departure form the predictions was Man U’s thrashing of Chelsea. Despite this, the Model thinks the (former) giants of the Premier League era are nonetheless underdogs on their travels to Wolves, with just a 27% chance of a win, compared with 48% for Wolves – the game is still likely to be tight, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12% chance).
Manchester City were so dominant this weekend that RED places them as firm favourites at home to supposed title rivals Spurs. City have a 72% chance of victory, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%).
RED has also been scouring the web looking for other sources of predictions. One such source is bookmakers. In a fit of insecurity, the computer has decided that each week it will sense check its forecasts, by comparing the predicted probabilities of result outcomes with what it can estimate and infer about bookmaker predictions from the average of their current online odds.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 2 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.