After 3 games already no team in the Championship has a perfect record. Reflecting this, RED is generating forecasts for close games throughout tonight’s and tomorrow’s fixtures. Huddersfield already appear to have been marked as the weakest side in the division by the Model, having already sacked their manager too, and RED suggests Cardiff have a 61% chance of beating them. The other sides with better than a 50% chance of recording a win currently occupy the top three places in the table: Cardiff, West Brom and Leeds.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 4 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Championship R4 probability forecasts, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.