The Championship weekend kicks off with Derby County hosting West Brom at Saturday lunchtime. RED is more generous to Derby than the average bookmaker odds imply, giving them a 42% chance of a win. However, like in most games, the most likely scoreline outcome is 1-1 (13%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 5 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

R5 forecasts of Championship, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.