Old guard faces new guard this evening, as Neil Warnock’s Cardiff welcome Scott Parker’s Fulham to Wales. Both sides are still acclimatising to the Championship, and though Fulham have had the better start to the season, RED gives Cardiff the (home) advantage, with a 46% of victory. Expected goals are 1.5 and 1.1, respectively, so the most likely scoreline outcome is 1-1 (13%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 6 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

R6 Championship forecasts, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.