League Two has been tight so far – 80% of matches have had at most a goal between the sides, whereas more generally only about 62% of matches are that close.
RED thinks 1-1 is most likely in every match tomorrow, reflecting this tightness. The biggest gap in expected goals is in the Crewe-Bradford match, where Crewe are expected to score 1.56 goals to Bradford’s 1.02.
Grimsby pulled off one of the few big results so far this season last week, hammering Port Vale 5-2, a scoreline that had just a 0.2% chance of occurring. Bookmakers appear to have ignored that this week, as they only give them a 29% chance at Walsall (Walsall 42%). This may be a function of bookmakers over-estimating relegated sides relative to RED, but RED sees this match as very even – Walsall at 37.6%, Grimsby at 34.7%.