The Bi-P-VAR-X, aka RED, has produced its forecasts for R4 of the Premier League.

Manchester Utd have had an up and down start to the new season, even just 3 games in — unconvincing to say the least. On Saturday lunchtime they play Southampton on the South Coast, who pulled off a win last weekend. Ominously for Utd fans, RED even this early in the season doesn’t rate their side’s chances, and Southampton are slight favourites in this one, with a 39% chance of victory, though the bookmakers do make Utd favourites— the most likely scoreline outcome is 1-1 (13%).

Manchester City are already chasing Liverpool. The blue half of Manchester hosts Brighton at 3pm on Saturday. RED gives them an 82% chance of a win, with Brighton given just 6% chance of taking 3 points, which is still higher than the average prediction among bookmaker odds. City are expected to score 2.8 goals compared with 0.6 for Brighton. The most likely scoreline outcome is 2-0 (13%).

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 4 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

R4 forecasts of PL, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.