Football is back, returning to the rest of the country after being dominated by those “rich remainers” down south for the last two weeks (what a muppet that man is…)

The Model’s beloved Derby County kick the weekend off, hosting Cardiff City on Friday night. Derby’s form has been abysmal, having recently made even Stoke City look good. The Model however makes them slight favourites, with 1.4 expected goals and a 45% change of a win. The most likely scoreline outcome however is 1-1.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 7 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Championship R7 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.