The international showcase on how not to defend in football has finished, and the Premier League is back.

Chelsea have experienced a rocky start to the season. Therefore it is no surprise that RED’s bi-p-var-x model makes them slight underdogs on their travels to the Black Country to face Wolves. The Model gives Wolves a 40% chance of a win, whereas the implied probability among bookmaker odds is just 33%. The match is forecast to be tight, and 1-1 is the most likely outcome.

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 5 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL forecasts R5 2019, Red
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.