The 1st Reading Football Economics Workshop is currently taking place. After the talks have finished, several participants are attending this weekend’s Championship fixture between Reading and Blackburn. According to RED, this won’t be a goalfest. Reading are expected to score 1.4 goals and Blackburn just 1.2 goals. The home side, although struggling this season, have a slight advantage, with a 40% chance of victory. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome is 1-1 (13%). Interestingly, the Model has almost exactly the same opinion on this fixture as the average among bookmakers, with the latter seeming to predict a 39% chance of a Reading win.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 8 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champ forecasts, R8, 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.