Man City were humbled in East Anglia last weekend. The long-term injury to Laporte appears to have left them threadbare at the back. But at home Manchester City are still a frightening beast, and the new Watford manager has slim chances in his first game. The Model expects Man City to score 2.6 goals to Watford’s 0.7, and gives the hosts a 78.3% chance of a win. The bookmakers appear to argue this is an underestimate, as the average of their odds implies an 86.3% chance of a home win. The most likely outcome is 2-0 (13%).

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 6 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EPL forecasts R6 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.