Drama at Derby. It sounds like something out of “Dream Team” (really miss that show – soap opera and football combined, why did Harchester Utd have to end?) Mass drink-driving offences and the captain’s leg getting smashed don’t feature as variables in the Scorecasting Model. So perhaps Derby’s expected goals forecast this weekend of 1.4 at home to Birmingham is a little ambitious. Nonetheless, the Model and bookmaker implied forecasts of a Derby win are similar, at 45% and 43%, respectively.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 9 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Forecasts EFL Champ R9 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.