Reading lie just above the relegation zone. So unsurprisingly the Model makes them underdogs away to Bristol City, with just a 21% chance of a win, and expected to score only 0.93 goals, compared with 1.67 for Bristol. The most likely outcome in this match is 1-0 (10.3%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 11 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champ forecasts, R11 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.