The Model gives Wolves just a 5.4% chance of beating Man City away this weekend. The bookies are even more pessimistic about their chances, suggesting only a 4.5% chance that Wolves will overcome the Champions. Such uncompetitive fixtures were rare before the Premier League and the sheikhs arrived. There are lessons throughout sporting history whereby a lack of competitive balance destroyed the popularity of sports. Fans want to see a contest. Anyway… [Good luck to Wolves in making the Model and the Bookies look silly!]

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 8 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL Forecasts R8 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.