One source of comparison for the Model’s forecasts is the odds offered by bookmakers. In the Championship there are often quite stark differences between the two. This round of midweek fixtures in the Championship provides a good illustration of this:
Preston vs Leeds: The Model makes Preston the favourites, with a 43% chance of victory, but the average of odds among bookmakers implies that Leeds are favourites, at a 46% chance of a win. This is a stark difference, with the Model and bookmakers differing so markedly on which team is most likely to win. Preston, after all, do have home advantage and lie in 6th, not far behind Leeds in 2nd. The Model is likely placing far greater weight on form over reputation than the bookmakers do.
Fulham vs Luton & West Brom vs Barnsley: The two home sides in these fixtures are higher placed than their opponents, and are arguably “bigger” clubs, at least based on recent history. As such, it is perhaps unsurprising that the bookmaker odds imply the home sides are big favourites in both, at 64% and 70% chances of wins, respectively. But the Model forecasts perhaps reflect the truer nature of the Championship, being a league which often features shocks and where the differences between teams are often much narrower on the pitch than league positions imply. The Model only gives the home sides 47% and 57% chances of winning, respectively.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.