Barnsley host Bristol City tonight in the Friday evening championship kick-off. The University of Reading’s “Super” computer, a.k.a. RED, predicts that Barnsley are favourites in this fixture, with a 48% chance of a win, compared with just 26% for Bristol. This contrasts with the bookmakers, who on average make Bristol slight favourites. Barnsley, on average, are expected to score 1.5 goals, compared with 1 for Bristol, and the most likely outcome of the match is 1-1, expecting to occur 12 times if this match were actually played 100 times.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 15 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.