Derby County travel to Craven Cottage this evening, having picked up a vital win at the weekend over Preston. Fulham are just 5 points ahead of the Rams in the table, and both sides have won 3 of their last 5 games. The Model however gives Derby just 26% chance of returning from London with a win. Though this is better than the bookmakers, whose odds imply Derby have just an 18% chance of a win. Fulham are expected to score 1.5 goals to Derby’s 1.0, and the most likely outcome is 1-1 (12.4%), shortly followed by 1-0 (12.0%).
Our local side Reading host Leeds tonight. Going by form, Leeds should be big favourites. The bookmakers have it this way, with their odds suggesting Leeds have a 52% chance of a win. But the forecasting Model has this game much closer, giving Leeds a 40% chance and Reading 33% chance of victory. Reading are expected to score 1.2 goals to Leeds’ 1.4.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.