There is a top of the table clash tonight between Swansea and Fulham. The Model suggests it will be tight, with the home side, Swansea, given a 41% chance of a win, and Fulham given a 32% chance. The expected goals are 1.3 and 1.1, respectively, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%). Interestingly, the bookmakers agree on the margin between the two teams, but have it the other way around, suggesting a 40% chance of a win for Fulham and 33% for Swansea.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 19 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champ forecasts, R19 2019, RED


  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.