As always, the Scorecasting Model provides some notable differences in forecasts when compared against those suggested by bookmaker odds. In some cases, the win %s almost match perfectly, such as Southampton v Watford this weekend. But the bookmakers generally seem to offer excessively short odds (high probabilities) on favourite teams, such as Chelsea or Man City. For example, this weekend the bookmakers suggest that Man City have an 81% chance of a win away at Newcastle, who are given just a 6% chance themselves. But the Model gives Newcastle as much as a 20% chance of a win, and says that the most likely outcome of the match is 1-1 (11%). There is a considerable academic literature which has studied whether bookmaker odds are biased, and what this implies about bettors. The Scorecasting Model does not suffer from bias in the same way…
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.