There is a midweek round of Premier League fixtures this week, Tuesday to Thursday (bizarrely). Most notable perhaps is the Wednesday evening Merseyside Derby at Anfield. Some bookmakers are now effectively giving Liverpool an 80% chance of becoming champions this season. There are perhaps similar chances that Everton will have a new manager by the weekend, as Marco Silva continues to find things very tough in his second season (…syndrome?). Keep your form books open, don’t throw them out of the window, because that would be crazy: the Model makes Liverpool big favourites, at 76% chance of a win, and they are expected to score 2.5 goals to 0.7 for Everton. The Model is slightly more pessimistic about Everton’s chances here, since they only give Liverpool an implied 69% chance of victory.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 15 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.