Premier League, R17 (14-16 Dec): When did the favourite-longshot bias in football odds reverse? Are longshots generally underpriced? Written by singletonderbyfanPosted on December 14, 2019 The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 17 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. PL forecasts, R17 2019, RED Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw. Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening. Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match. Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.