There’s a rare amount of agreement between RED and the bookies in the Championship this weekend. Literally the only point of disagreement is on Stoke’s chances at Middlesbrough in the relegation battle this evening. The bookies think it’ll be very tight indeed, but RED thinks Middlesbrough have a 49% chance of winning.

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 23 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.