Watford and Norwich are sure to spend Christmas in the relegation zone. But Southampton have a chance to escape this weekend at Aston Villa’s expense. The two sides face off today, and the Model makes Villa, playing at home, considerable favourites, with a 55% chance of a win and 1.7 expected goals. The Model says that Southampton are expected to score less than a goal and the most likely outcome is 1-0 (11%). However, the bookmaker odds give Southampton slightly better chances, with a 34% chance of a win according to them.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 18 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.