The last matches of 2019 in the lower leagues take place on Sunday. How did things look ten years ago, out of interest?

Well, the 2009-10 League One Title was won by Norwich City, with Southampton in seventh place, and Brighton in 13th place. In addition to those current Premier League teams, Huddersfield, relegated from the Premier League last season, finished in sixth place. Brentford, Charlton, Millwall and Leeds are now in the Championship. Swindon, Colchester, Walsall, Carlisle, Oldham, Leyton Orient, and Exeter are in League Two. Three teams, Hartlepool United (20th), Stockport County (24th) and Yeovil Town (15th) have since fallen out of the Football League. Leaving just Bristol Rovers (11th), MK Dons (17th), Tranmere (19th), Gillingham (21st) and Southend (23rd) in this season’s League One. Note that two of those teams got relegated that season, and two of the others have spent time out of the Football League in the intervening years.

Testament to the extent of change in a system allowing promotion and relegation for the better and worse managed teams…

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.