Derby managed to break their winless run and claim three points against Charlton last night, despite being down to 10 men. They will start 2020 hopeful, against Barnsley at home, and with a certain Wayne Rooney most likely on the bench. The Model makes the Rams strong favourites, at 48% for the win, and stronger than the bookies, who have them at 41%. The most likely outcome though is 1-1 (12%).
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.