Arsenal are thoroughly mid-table at best this season, and Man Utd may be playing well, but they will be fortunate to finish in their current position of 5th, given that Spurs and Wolves objectively look stronger. Arsenal host Utd in the evening game on New Year’s day. The Model is in almost complete agreement with the average bookmaker odds on the result for this one. Arsenal have a 36% chance of winning and Man Utd have a 38% chance. The most likely outcome is 1-1 (12%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 21 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Prem Forecasts R21 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.