The EFL Cup has reached the Semi Final stage. It’s a bit of deja vu for Manchester, a repeat of the 2010 semi final when a 90th minute Wayne Rooney goal gave United a 4-3 aggregate win. Things weren’t quite as lopsided as the bookies thing tonight’s going to be – United only have a 19.7% chance of winning. RED’s a touch more generous at 28.8%. United will want at least a two goal margin and a clean sheet, to hope to have a chance of progressing – RED puts that outcome at 4.8%.

Leicester play Villa in the other semi-final – another uneven match-up with Leicester looking good for the top 4, and Villa battling against relegation. A comfortable 2-0 home win is a much more likely 13% here.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.