The transfer window is open but has so far been quiet. One side in dire need of reinforcements are Aston Villa. This weekend they face a tough visit by Man City. The Model still gives them a 19% chance of a win though. The bookmakers perhaps reflect more on the Villa injury crisis and just give them a 7% chance. The Most likely outcome according to the Model is 0-1 (12%), with City expected to score on average 1.8 goals.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.