Spurs have been patchy since ‘the special one’ took charge, and the rest of their season is unlikely to be helped by a long-term injury to their premium goalscorer. This weekend they travel the short distance to Vicarage Road and face Watford, who look resurgent under their new manager. The  forecasting Model makes Watford favourites, giving them a 44% chance of the win and 1.5 expected goals. Spurs on the other hand have just a 30% chance and 1.2 expected goals. The most likely outcome is 1-1 (12%). The average odds-implied bookmaker probabilities however have this one flipped, with Spurs favourites at a 43% chance of gaining the three points.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 23 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EPL forecasts R23 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.